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China's agricultural machinery market in the second half of 2010 is worth looking forward to

发表时间:
2020/05/09
[Abstract]:
The performance of the agricultural machinery market in the first half of 2010 was unexpected. Under the influence of subjective and objective factors such as unfavorable agricultural meteorology, lagging in implementation of national supplementary projects, weak user demand, and reduced purchasers, the agricultural machinery market sales have not followed the path expected by the beginning of the year. Years are very different, and in the face of reality, the good wishes of many people have again failed. But the first half of the year has become a thing of the past. When we look back at the past and sum up the experience and lessons, we must put the focus of attention and the goal of struggle in the later market. After a comprehensive analysis of various factors, the author believes that the opportunities for the agricultural machinery market in the second half of the year are still great, and well-prepared enterprises will certainly make a big difference.

The performance of the agricultural machinery market in the first half of 2010 was unexpected. Under the influence of subjective and objective factors such as unfavorable agricultural meteorology, lagging in implementation of national supplementary projects, weak user demand, and reduced purchasers, the agricultural machinery market sales have not followed the path expected by the beginning of the year. Years are very different, and in the face of reality, the good wishes of many people have again failed. But the first half of the year has become a thing of the past. When we look back at the past and sum up the experience and lessons, we must put the focus of attention and the goal of struggle in the later market. After a comprehensive analysis of various factors, the author believes that the opportunities for the agricultural machinery market in the second half of the year are still great, and well-prepared enterprises will certainly make a big difference.

1. Analysis of favorable factors in the agricultural machinery market in the second half of the year

1. Demand gap left in the first half of the year

In 2009, China's agricultural machinery market saw an unprecedentedly good situation. Many companies have achieved good business performance and made a lot of money. However, due to insufficient preparation for the market last year, many companies failed to provide timely supplies during the peak season. Out of stock and lost orders. This year, lessons learned from last year have been adopted. All enterprises have generally strengthened production preparation and increased channel sales. However, due to the overall implementation time of national projects two months later than 2009, some regions and some products have missed sales opportunities. For example, the large and medium-sized wheel tractors and planters for spring and spring sowing in March and April, and the wheat combine harvester for three summer operations, which also set aside a gap in demand for the sale of agricultural machinery products in the second half of the year. According to the statistics of previous years, the ratio of sales demand for agricultural machinery products in the first and second half of the year is about 7: 3. Due to the late implementation of the project this year, many places missed the agricultural time, so it is expected that the sales demand ratio in the first half of the year will be about 6.5: 3.5, so the second half of the year The size of the market is still worthy of attention.

2. The national supplement project is expected to start early in the second half of the year

Last year, the second batch of 3 billion state subsidies was officially released in mid-September. It inevitably missed some agricultural machinery sales opportunities in August and September, which also affected autumn cultivation and sowing. A batch of projects in the first half of this year were in mid-May It only entered the peak period, which seriously affected the sales of agricultural machinery products and farmland operations. In April and May of this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Machinery Industry Association organized personnel to conduct surveys throughout the country and some key enterprises. All enterprises generally have opinions on the lag of the project start this year, so Drawing on the lessons learned from last year and the first half of this year, and considering the recommendations of most companies, it is expected that the second batch of national supplementary funds this year will be earlier than the same period last year, and the project launch will be earlier than the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the Ministry of Agriculture had news that the second batch of national supplementary funds would be allocated by the end of June, but as of mid-July, it had not been allocated. From the analysis of the seasonality of agricultural time and agricultural machinery product sales, it is expected that the Ministry of Agriculture will be in late July or early August Two batches of 5.5 billion yuan of subsidy funds were allocated, and the second batch of projects will also start after the funds are allocated. The start of the project will be conducive to the enterprise to carry out marketing activities calmly, and users also have sufficient time to choose and compare; the extension of effective sales time will definitely increase product sales and also benefit the overall market development in the down year.

3. Guarantee of the second batch of national supplementary funds

Although the demand in the first half of the year did not meet people ’s expectations and the stock pressures of various enterprises were generally high, the companies did not show obvious anxiety and panic. This is because everyone knows that there is still 5.5 billion yuan of national supplementary funds in the second half of the year. Centralized execution. In terms of quantity alone, the 5.5 billion yuan of national supplementary funds in the second half of the year is more than the total amount of national supplementary funds in the five years from 2004 to 2008, so companies generally expect great expectations from the market in the second half of the year. To show their talents, especially those with large sales gaps in the first half of the year, they are currently planning to introduce competitive sales promotion policies and intend to win as much cake as possible in the market competition in the second half of the year. The two batches of national supplementary funds will be a reassurance for all enterprises, but who can get and how much of this amount of funds depends on the comprehensive strength of the enterprise and the grasp of market opportunities.

4. Increased income will drive demand for agricultural machinery

Everything has two sides. In the first half of this year, the sales of combine harvesters fell by 50% year-on-year, which had a great impact on the operation of large enterprises such as Futian, Ward, Jinyi and so on. But on the other hand, for the number of operators participating in cross-regional operations, the number of new machines this year has been halved, and the number of operators who bought machines last year went out to work, resulting in a significant reduction in the combined harvesters participating in the three-summer cross-regional operations this year. The competition between the aircraft operators has been eased, and the income of most aircraft operators is generally higher than that of the same period last year, and the expected time for the investment recovery of the machinery is shortened. Affected by this favorable factor, some large agricultural machinery households and cooperatives in the second half of this year will increase the demand for large and medium-sized wheel tractors, corn harvesters and other operations, and high-efficiency machinery and equipment. In addition, the national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy project will still be The focus is on subsidies for these machines and equipment, so it is expected that there will be a wave of sales peaks in the demand for these products in the second half of the year.

5. Influence by other factors

Different from the first half of the year, there will be some non-state supplementary agricultural projects to be implemented or finalized in the second half of the year, such as cross-year implementation of high-quality grain projects, commercial grain base construction projects, new 50 billion grain projects, autumn farmland capital construction projects, diseases Reinforcement and maintenance of dangerous reservoirs, dams, and other local agricultural projects, new rural construction projects, etc. will directly and indirectly increase the demand for agricultural machinery, so we have reason to believe that the market demand for agricultural machinery in the second half of the year is still very ideal. Worth waiting.

2. Characteristics of market competition in the second half of the year

Due to the implementation of fixed subsidies for agricultural machinery products this year, in the case of weak sales in the first half of the year, in order to clear the channel stocks as soon as possible, all enterprises will attach great importance to market sales opportunities in the second half of the year. For companies without a brand advantage, they will definitely choose price reductions to promote Expansion of sales, and strong companies will certainly follow up passively in order to maintain market position. Of course, it is not excluded that some large-scale enterprises take the lead in initiating a price war in order to integrate the market and combat competitors. Price is the most powerful tool for competition. It is expected that in the second half of the year, price wars will become the mainstream and normal state of industry competition in all sales regions. The consequence of price wars is that companies with strong comprehensive strength and outstanding cost control capabilities win, while some have weak competitiveness. Companies will be eliminated, perhaps this year will be the first year of competition in the agricultural machinery industry since the implementation of the 2004 national supplement policy, because the current number of domestic agricultural machinery product manufacturers has reached an abnormal state, if the industry does not compete Elimination will definitely affect the healthy development of the industry. Machine market worth looking forward to